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In September China Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.8%
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Article Source:net wealth Update Time:2015-10-14

Introduction: September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, than going up the month rose 0.1 percentage points; the new orders index was 50.2%, than going up the month rose by 0.5 percentage points. Large enterprises PMI was 51.1%, up 1.2 percentage points over the previous month, return to the critical point above; in the small business PMI were 48.5% and 46.8%, respectively, down 1.3 percentage points over the previous month.

 

September official PMI end of the two consecutive month of decline in the situation, a series of steady growth measures have finally emerged.

 

National Bureau of statistics released data show that China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.1 percentage points over August, ending two consecutive months of decline. Data show that accelerate the accumulation of the positive factors of China's macro economic operation, economic operation in the fourth quarter will remain slow in stabilization, steady upward trend

 

The State Council Development Research Center macroeconomic researcher Zhang Liqun said, in September the PMI index slightly increased, indicating that the economy has slowed down. New orders, export orders index increased, reflecting the market demand has improved, the production index increased, indicating that the industrial growth of the. The purchase price index, import index increased, but the purchase quantity and finished product inventory index continued to decline, reflecting the market is expected to start to adjust, to inventory activities may change.

 

"September manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly, show that the effect of the initial steady growth policy is gradually released." Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications said that in the current international economic environment, external demand slow improvement driven export orders increased will promote the production enterprises. Real estate market rebound may drive upstream demand for manufacturing chain increased. A large number of steady growth projects will continue to release the effect of fiscal stimulus will gradually appear, will drive demand for improvement. Loose monetary policy is loose, the level of social financing interest rates decline, the market liquidity ample, to help companies produce recovery. The policy of steady growth in the four quarter driven manufacturing PMI regression line ups and downs.

 

From the specific indicators, the production and market demand for the manufacturing sector has rebounded. Among them, the production index was 0.6, an increase of 52.3% percentage points over August. The new orders index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points higher than in August, which is the index for the first time in 3 months after the first rebound. The new export orders index, although still below 50%, but also increased by 0.2 percentage points.

 

But announced the same day the Caixin PMI is still continuous decline, the property of new China manufacturing PMI recorded 47.2, than in August dropped 0.1 percentage points; property of new China services PMI although in the expansion of the range, but by August 51.5 slowed to 50.5. Affected by this, September Caixin China comprehensive PMI fell to 48.0, 0.8 percentage points lower than in August, for two consecutive months less than 50.0 the ups and downs of the dividing line, was the lowest since January 2009. Experts said the official PMI research and large enterprises, to benefit from the policy will be more. In fact breakdown of the data also show that the expansion of large enterprises significantly faster than small businesses.

 

From the point of view of the third quarter, manufacturing PMI index due to the continuous decline in July and August, the overall trend is weak, with an average of 49.8%, slightly lower than the first two quarters of this year, is mainly affected by the complex external environment of the superposition of the off-season market. September index showed positive changes, weak performance has changed, the composite index has stabilized rebound, sub index rose more than a few drops.

According to Standard Chartered Bank China chief economist Ding Shuang analysis, due to the lack of effective way to drive consumption in the short term, stimulating investment or become policy preferred. China is expected to take further easing measures to ensure the realization of the economic growth target in 2015. Policy to relax the lagged effect of the effects of the real economy will rebound in the four quarter. As the macroeconomic policy to maintain a stable, strong international balance of payments, China's economic crisis is far from the distance.

 

China Logistics Information Center, readjusting relationship experts said that from the current point of view, the unstable factors in the economy tends to weaken, with steady growth policy measures continue to overweight, efforts to increase, accelerate the accumulation of positive factors, cumulative effect gradually release, in the fourth quarter, the economy operation will remain slow stabilised, steady upward trend basically.

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